US Trade Partners 2024: Top Countries, Tariff Impacts & Future Trends
Table of Contents
The Shifting Landscape of US Global Trade
In 2024, the United States remains a dominant force in global commerce, with $5.3 trillion in total trade volume—spanning imports, exports, and services. However, geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and supply chain realignments are dramatically reshaping America’s trade relationships.
Key Takeaway:
- Mexico has overtaken China as the largest US trade partner in goods, with $839.9 billion in total trade—a 28% surge since 2020.
- China’s trade share dropped by 12% due to tariffs, while Canada and the EU remain critical partners in energy and manufacturing.
- New players like Vietnam and India are rising, fueled by electronics and pharmaceutical exports.
This article explores:
✔ Top US trade partners in 2024 (with data breakdowns)
✔ Sector-by-sector trade deficits & surpluses
✔ How 2025 tariffs will disrupt key industries
✔ Future trends—nearshoring, renewable energy shifts, and trade wars
Top US Trade Partners in 2024
The Big Four: EU, Mexico, Canada, and China
1. Mexico ($839.9B Total Trade)
- Why? USMCA (NAFTA 2.0) boosted manufacturing integration.
- Top Imports: Vehicles (147B),machinery(147B),machinery(89B), agricultural goods ($43B).
- Case Study: Tesla’s new Gigafactory in Monterrey will supply 500K EVs annually to the US by 2026.
2. Canada ($718.4B Total Trade)
- Energy Dominance: The US imports $120B in Canadian crude oil yearly.
- Auto Sector: 25% of US vehicles contain Canadian parts.
3. China (758.4B,DownFrom758.4B,DownFrom863B in 2022)
- Tariff Impact: 25% duties on $370B of Chinese goods slashed electronics/textile imports.
- Shift to Vietnam/India: Apple now makes 40% of iPhones in India (vs. 5% in 2020).
4. European Union ($975.9B)
- Aerospace & Pharma: Boeing-Airbus deals and $62B in vaccine exports.
Rising Stars: Vietnam, India, and ASEAN
- Vietnam ($136.6B): Electronics (Intel, Samsung) now 12% of US chip imports.
- India ($118.9B): Generic drugs and IT services dominate.
Trade Deficits & Surpluses
Biggest Deficits
- China (-$295.4B) – Electronics, toys, and machinery.
- Mexico (-$152.1B) – Cars and auto parts.
- Germany (-$82.7B) – Luxury vehicles (BMW, Mercedes).
Notable Surpluses
- Netherlands (+$48.3B) – US gas exports to Europe.
- UK (+$11.8B) – Financial services and whisky.
Sector Breakdown:
- Oil/Gas: -$149.7B deficit (imports from Canada/Saudi Arabia).
- Agriculture: +$29.5B surplus (soybeans, corn to Mexico/China).
How 2025 Tariffs Will Reshape Trade
1. Auto Industry Chaos (25% Tariffs on Canada/Mexico)
- Impact: Car prices may rise 3K–3K–12K (Ford F-150 production costs up 18%).
- Case Study: GM shifts $2B in parts sourcing from Mexico to Alabama.
2. Agricultural Retaliation
- Mexico’s 25% Corn Tariff: US farmers lose $5.4B in exports.
- Canada’s Dairy Restrictions: Wisconsin cheesemakers face 15% higher tariffs.
3. Electronics & Tech Shifts
- China Tariffs: iPhone prices could jump 50–50–100 per unit.
- Vietnam/India Benefit: Samsung moves 50% of smartphone production to Hanoi.
Future Trends
1. Nearshoring to Mexico
- 40% of US auto parts now come from Mexico (vs. 28% in 2020).
2. Renewable Energy Supply Chains
- Solar Panels: US now imports 60% from Southeast Asia (vs. 90% China in 2018).
3. AI & Automation in Trade
- Walmart’s AI Customs Tool cut border delays by 30%.
What’s Next for US Trade?
- Mexico will solidify its lead as the top US trade partner.
- China trade will keep declining unless tariffs ease.
- Nearshoring and AI logistics are the future.
Recommendation: Businesses should diversify suppliers to Mexico/ASEAN and hedge against tariffs.
FAQ‘s
1. Who is the US’s largest trade partner in 2024?
Mexico ($839.9B), surpassing China due to USMCA and tariffs.
2. How do tariffs affect US consumers?
Higher prices on cars (up 12%), electronics (up 8%), and food (up 5%).
3. Which US states rely most on trade?
Texas (energy), California (tech), Michigan (autos).